Strategic Outlook: Greece’s Real Estate Market

Greece’s real estate sector is undergoing a robust and multifaceted transformation, underpinned by a confluence of macroeconomic recovery, favorable legislative frameworks, and heightened foreign investor engagement. The market’s resurgence positions it as a critical vector for cross-border investment, asset diversification, and strategic migration planning under EU law.

I. Market Dynamics and Legislative Backdrop

The Hellenic Republic’s residential property market has registered unprecedented appreciation, evidencing an annual increase of 14.5% in Q1 2023—the most substantial growth recorded in over three decades. Although the growth trajectory moderated to 7.29% year-on-year in Q3 2024 in urban centers, the medium-term trend remains expansionary and resilient.

Simultaneously, real estate transaction volumes accelerated markedly. According to data published by the Independent Authority for Public Revenue (AADE), state revenues derived from property transfers reached €302.49 million in H1 2024, up from €252.98 million in the corresponding period of 2023—constituting a year-on-year increase of approximately 20%.

II. The Golden Visa Program and Regulatory Evolution

A central catalyst for inbound capital flows remains the Greek Golden Visa Program (Law 4251/2014, as amended), which confers five-year renewable residency permits to third-country nationals who acquire or lease immovable property with a value exceeding a statutory threshold.

Effective August 2023, said threshold was increased from €250,000 to €500,000 in designated high-demand zones, including Attica, Thessaloniki, Mykonos, and Santorini. Furthermore, as of 31 August 2024, the minimum qualifying investment will rise to €800,000 in these regions. Notwithstanding this regulatory adjustment, investor appetite remains robust: during the August–December 2023 period, 3,626 new applications were filed—a 60% increase over the prior year’s comparative period. As of October 2024, active applications had reached 12,577, reflecting a 12% year-on-year uptick.

These figures underscore the Program’s resilience and its dual role as both a migration mechanism and a property market stimulant.

III. Real Estate as a Channel of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

Real estate continues to constitute a significant share—estimated between 20% and 35%—of Greece’s annual foreign direct investment portfolio. The total net FDI allocated toward real estate acquisitions amounted to €2.13 billion in 2023, representing an 8% year-on-year increase. In H1 2024 alone, real estate-related FDI rose to €1.14 billion, evidencing continued foreign engagement despite global monetary tightening and geopolitical volatility.

This upward trend aligns with pre-pandemic patterns of expansion: net FDI in real estate increased by 45.3% in 2016, 86.5% in 2017, and a remarkable 172.1% in 2018, signifying a structural, rather than cyclical, investor recalibration toward Greek property.

IV. Serviced Apartments and Hybrid Asset Classes

Of particular note is the emergent sector of branded serviced apartments, notably within the Attica basin. This asset class, increasingly preferred by digital nomads, corporate tenants, and international students, offers an attractive alternative to conventional leases and short-term rentals.

In 2024, short-stay supply grew by 11%, while booking volumes increased by 16%, underscoring robust consumer demand. Despite this, Athens remains largely unpenetrated by international serviced apartment operators. Domestic stakeholders such as DKG Development have assumed a first-mover advantage, managing a portfolio exceeding 1,000 assets. Given the dual pressures of tourism-led demand and residential affordability constraints, the sector presents considerable scope for expansion under structured investment vehicles and Real Estate Investment Companies (REICs).

V. Housing Stock, Construction Trends, and Regional Disparities

The residential construction sector has recorded sustained activity for the seventh consecutive year, with 26,930 building permits issued in 2023—an annual increase of 8.1%. However, regional imbalances persist: over 35% of the national housing stock remains unoccupied, predominantly in rural zones, and in a state of material disrepair.

By contrast, urban housing density is among the highest in the European Union, creating a dichotomous market with underutilized rural inventory and overstressed urban infrastructure. These dynamics may give rise to legal reforms targeting urban renewal, incentives for rehabilitating heritage housing stock, and reclassification of vacant assets under planning law.

VI. Forward-Looking Considerations

The outlook for 2025 and beyond is defined by three principal vectors:

1. Regulatory Adjustments – Any further amendments to the Golden Visa framework will require continuous monitoring, especially in light of potential EU harmonization discussions on investment migration.

2. Asset Diversification – The nascent but scalable serviced apartment market offers a hybrid investment model aligned with lifestyle migration and flexible tenancy law.

3. Macroeconomic Volatility – Global capital markets and interest rate cycles will continue to shape investment flows into Greek property.

Conclusion

Greece’s real estate market represents a convergent opportunity for capital preservation, portfolio diversification, and EU-based mobility. For institutional investors, legal advisors, and high-net-worth individuals alike, the country offers a strategic locus of investment underpinned by legal certainty, residency incentives, and a Mediterranean lifestyle appeal.

Law firms and legal service providers operating in cross-border investment advisory should remain attuned to the evolving statutory framework, tax implications, and compliance protocols governing such transactions.